Market Reports / May 22, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 22, 2026

15 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 71

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On May 22, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 1 signal worth sending, with 14 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
71
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
DET @ BAL
Density
7.0%
1 of 15
Passed
14
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
STL @ CIN
Market
1.5
Model
0.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
STL @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ ARI -1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
WAS @ ATL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
OAK @ SD 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ CHC 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TEX @ LAA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
TB @ NYY 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIN @ BOS 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
LAD @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ SF 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds +1.3 pp toward model
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies +0.9 pp toward model
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees +1.6 pp toward model
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays +0.6 pp toward model
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox No movement
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins +4.0 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
5 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes14 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameDET @ BAL› GameCHW @ SF› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone›

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