Market Reports / May 21, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 21, 2026

7 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 76

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 21, 2026, that process resulted in 1 published signal and 6 passes.

MEI
76
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
OAK @ LAA
Density
14.0%
1 of 7
Passed
6
of 7
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
CLE @ DET
Market
1.5
Model
0.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
CLE @ DET 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
OAK @ LAA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers +0.4 pp toward model
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals -1.4 pp away
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals +0.2 pp toward model
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins No movement
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees +3.3 pp toward model
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels +0.9 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
4 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 6 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameOAK @ LAA› GameNYM @ WAS› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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