Market Reports / May 18, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 18, 2026

14 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 80

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 18, 2026, that process resulted in 2 published signals and 12 passes.

MEI
80
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
OAK @ LAA
Density
14.0%
2 of 14
Passed
12
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Athletics -1.5
OAK @ LAA
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.4
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
OAK @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CIN @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TEX @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ NYY 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
NYM @ WAS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ CHC 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAD @ SD 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CLE @ DET 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
BAL @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins +2.1 pp toward model
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays -2.2 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies +2.3 pp toward model
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers +0.6 pp toward model
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals +3.0 pp toward model
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees +2.7 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
4 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 2. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameOAK @ LAA› GameCIN @ PHI› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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