The idea
What SharpPicks does
A mathematical model reads every game on the board and looks for spots where the betting market has the number wrong. When the gap is large enough, the model publishes a signal: a position worth considering, with the reasoning attached. Coverage is live for the NBA, in beta for MLB, with the WNBA next.
Market intelligence, not a sportsbook. SharpPicks does not take bets or hold funds. It shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much. What you do with that is yours to decide.
The signal, part by part
Anatomy of a signal
Every day the model surfaces one top signal. It looks dense at first. Here is the same card broken into seven pieces, each numbered to a plain explanation below.
Selection and spread OKC -8.5
The side the model is on, and the line. OKC needs to win by more than 8.5 points for the position to settle as a win.
Edge +12.8%
The distance between the market line and the model line, stated as a percentage. Larger means more disagreement, and more of what the model is built to find.
Price -105
The cost of the position. At -105 you risk 105 to make 100. It is the toll, not the edge.
Tier STR
Conviction level. STR is Strong, the model's highest tier. Weaker disagreements never reach a signal.
Market vs model -8.5 / -13.0
The book is offering 8.5. The model believes the fair number is closer to 13. That gap is where the value comes from.
Edge bar +12.8pp
The same edge, drawn to scale. A quick read on how far the model sits from the market without parsing the numbers.
Sizing Flat 2u / Kelly 5u
Suggested position size in units. One unit is your standard amount, usually 1 to 2 percent of bankroll. Flat stakes the same on every signal. Kelly scales the stake to the size of the edge. Pick one and hold to it.
Getting around
The five tabs
The whole app lives in five screens. Here is what each one is for.
Signals Home
Your daily board. The market intelligence banner, the day's top signal, and a snapshot of season performance, all in one view.
Market
The full slate. Market Efficiency Index, the regime read, line movement, and the model-versus-market delta for every game.
Results
Your scoreboard. Profit and loss, ROI, the equity curve, your discipline score, and capital preserved on the passes.
Insights Sharp Journal
Daily commentary and education, tagged Philosophy, Discipline, Market Notes, and How It Works.
Account
Settings and subscription management.
The vocabulary
Terms worth knowing
CLV, closing line value. How far the line moved in your favor between when a position opened and when the market closed. Beating the closing line consistently is the institutional scoreboard. It measures whether you were early to the right number, which is a truer test than any single win or loss.
- Spread
- The points a team is expected to win or lose by.
- Edge
- The distance between the model's number and the market's. Bigger edge, more potential value.
- Unit (u)
- A standardized bet size relative to your bankroll. Most set one unit at 1 to 2 percent.
- ROI
- Return on investment. Profit as a percentage of the total you have staked.
- Kelly criterion
- A formula for sizing stakes to the size of the edge and the probability.
- Signal density
- The share of games that produce a signal. Low density means the model is being selective.