You're 12 picks into the season. You're 5-7. You're wondering if the model is broken.
It's not. You just don't have enough data yet.
The Sample Size Problem
At 12 picks, your record is mostly noise. A fair coin flipped 12 times can easily come up 5-7. Or 8-4. Or 3-9. The variance in small samples is enormous, and your emotional reaction to a 5-7 start will mislead you far more than the record itself.
This is why Sharp Picks tracks Closing Line Value as the primary early performance metric. CLV answers a different question than your record does: not "did the bet win?" but "was the bet smart?"
What CLV Actually Tells You
If the model takes a team at +7.5 and the line closes at +6, that's 1.5 points of CLV. The market moved toward the model's position. Regardless of whether that specific bet won or lost, the model identified value that the broader market eventually agreed with.
Sustained positive CLV is the single best predictor of long-term profitability in sports betting. It's not a guarantee - nothing is - but it's the closest thing to a leading indicator that exists.
The 50-Pick Gate
I've set a personal rule: no meaningful model adjustments before 50 picks. Before that threshold, I'm watching CLV trends, checking that the pipeline is functioning correctly, and resisting the urge to tinker. After 50 picks, the data starts to mean something and adjustments become rational rather than reactive.
If you're a new user, I'd encourage the same patience. Don't judge the model on your first two weeks. Judge it on your first two months. And in the meantime, watch the CLV.