Market Reports / March 5, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 5, 2026

12 games analyzed 8 signals MEI: 77

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 8 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
77
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
DAL @ ORL
Density
67.0%
8 of 12
Passed
4
of 12
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Orlando Magic -9.0
DAL @ ORL
Market
-9.0
Model
None
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
DAL @ ORL -9.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BKN @ MIA -13.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
GSW @ HOU -8.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
IND @ LAC -11.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHI @ PHX -10.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ MIN -6.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
UTA @ WAS 3.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NOP @ SAC 5.5 3.5 to 4.4% SIGNAL
DET @ SAS 3.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAL @ DEN 5.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
ATL @ MIL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
OKC @ NYK -4.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks No movement
Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks No movement
Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Clippers No movement
Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic No movement
Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards No movement
Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
5-2
CLV beat
0 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 4 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes4 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameDAL @ ORL› GameBKN @ MIA› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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