NBA Market Report | April 29, 2026
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 44, signaling a normal environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
MEI
44
NORMAL
Top Edge
4.5%+
ORL @ DET
Density
33.0%
1 of 3
Passed
2
of 3
Signal
Signal Published
Orlando Magic +10.5
Market
10.5
Model
5.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL
Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.
Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
ORL @ DET
10.5
4.5%+
SIGNAL
HOU @ LAL
4.5
2 to 3.4%
PASS
TOR @ CLE
9.5
2 to 3.4%
PASS
Line Movement
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
+5.0 pts toward model
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
+2.0 pts toward model
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
+9.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
4-3
CLV beat
2 of 7
Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.
Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Passes2 games the model passed on›
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