The entire slate narrows to one pick: Atlanta Braves.
July 18, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-18T16:14:38.360837Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 81, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
10 / 14
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
10 of 14
4 of 14
Top Edge · Settled
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
4.5%+
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · TB 6, BOS 7
Model: -3.1
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
STL @ ARI
-12.0%
Final STL 3-5 ARI
BAL @ HOU
-12.0%
Final BAL 4-2 HOU
TB @ BOS
-12.0%
-1.0u
LAD @ NYY
-12.0%
Final LAD 0-0 NYY
PIT @ CLE
-11.9%
Final PIT 3-5 CLE
SD @ KC
-11.0%
Final SD 1-6 KC
CIN @ COL
-10.3%
Final CIN 3-10 COL
NYM @ PHI
-1.7%
Final NYM 1-6 PHI
MIA @ MIL
-0.9%
Final MIA 6-8 MIL
DET @ LAA
+0.4%
Final DET 7-0 LAA
MIN @ CHC
-3.4%
Final MIN 2-6 CHC
SF @ SEA
-4.7%
Final SF 3-4 SEA
CHW @ TOR
+8.8%
Final CHW 0-1 TOR
TEX @ ATL
+13.0%
Final TEX 7-6 ATL
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 4 of 14 settled games.
BAL @ HOU
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
DET @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
SD @ KC
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHW @ TOR
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CIN @ COL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -7.5
LAD @ NYY
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A miss on both axes. The ledger takes it as it is.
Sharp Principle
Process first. Results follow or they do not.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›