Market Reports / July 19, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 19, 2026

14 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 80

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 11 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
80
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
PIT @ CLE
Density
7.0%
1 of 14
Passed
13
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
STL @ ARI
Market
1.5
Model
0.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TB @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ ATL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ PHI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ NYY -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIN @ CHC 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
DET @ LAA -1.5 Below 2% PASS
CIN @ COL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays No movement
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox -1.0 pp away
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians +5.2 pp toward model
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers +11.5 pp toward model
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels -8.9 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
6 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GamePIT @ CLE› GameTB @ BOS› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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