Single conviction: Cleveland Guardians at +13 percent while the rest stays flat.
July 19, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-19T16:14:49.360362Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On July 19, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 14 MLB games and found only 1 signal worth sending, with 13 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
+1.6u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
9 / 14
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
9 of 14
5 of 14
Top Edge · Settled
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
4.5%+
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks · STL 7, ARI 8
Model: 0.1
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.6u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
TB @ BOS
+12.0%
Final TB 1-6 BOS
BAL @ HOU
-12.0%
Final BAL 5-2 HOU
STL @ ARI
-12.0%
+1.6u
TEX @ ATL
-11.8%
Final TEX 5-8 ATL
CHW @ TOR
-10.2%
Final CHW 3-0 TOR
NYM @ PHI
-10.2%
Final NYM 6-1 PHI
SD @ KC
-6.9%
Final SD 19-2 KC
LAD @ NYY
-6.8%
Final LAD 1-2 NYY
SF @ SEA
-5.4%
Final SF 3-6 SEA
MIN @ CHC
-2.7%
Final MIN 1-10 CHC
DET @ LAA
-1.6%
Final DET 2-3 LAA
CIN @ COL
+1.7%
Final CIN 9-6 COL
MIA @ MIL
-11.6%
Final MIA 1-3 MIL
PIT @ CLE
+13.1%
Final PIT 7-1 CLE
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 5 of 14 settled games.
DET @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
MIA @ MIL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
PIT @ CLE
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
STL @ ARI
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +5.5
TB @ BOS
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BAL @ HOU
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +3.5
Near Misses
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Cleared, closed, banked. The ledger records it without adjectives.
Sharp Principle
One night proves nothing. The ledger proves everything.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›