Market Reports / July 20, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 20, 2026

14 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 79

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 79, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
79
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SF @ KC
Density
21.0%
3 of 14
Passed
11
of 14
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Signal
Signal Published
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
STL @ LAA
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SF @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIN @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ NYY -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ TOR 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ HOU 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CIN @ SEA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAD @ PHI 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
SD @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians +2.7 pp toward model
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees +2.3 pp toward model
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays -3.2 pp away
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox -2.6 pp away
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies -1.4 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves +2.2 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
6 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSF @ KC› GameSTL @ LAA› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator›

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