Market Reports / July 25, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 25, 2026

14 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 82

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 82, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
82
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
TOR @ BOS
Density
14.0%
2 of 14
Passed
12
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Seattle Mariners -1.5
SEA @ TEX
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.6
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
CLE @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ NYM -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ DET 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
ARI @ WAS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAA @ SF 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ CHW 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers +2.8 pp toward model
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins +4.1 pp toward model
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies -1.9 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays -4.4 pp away
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates -2.4 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
4 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 12 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTOR @ BOS› GameCLE @ TB› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting›

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