Market Reports / July 21, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 21, 2026

14 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 76

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 10 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
76
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
DET @ CHC
Density
7.0%
1 of 14
Passed
13
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Washington Nationals -1.5
WAS @ COL
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
DET @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
STL @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ SEA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ TEX 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ HOU 1.5 Below 2% PASS
NYM @ MIL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIN @ CLE 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PIT @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies +3.1 pp toward model
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees +2.0 pp toward model
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays -0.7 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves -2.5 pp away
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals -2.1 pp away
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers +0.4 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
6 of 7

This slate had 14 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 1. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameDET @ CHC› GameWAS @ COL› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

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