Market Reports / July 26, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 26, 2026

14 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 83

The model reviewed 14 MLB games on July 26, 2026 and found 12 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 4 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
83
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SD @ MIA
Density
29.0%
4 of 14
Passed
10
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
CLE @ TB
Market
1.5
Model
0.4
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
CLE @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ARI @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ DET 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TOR @ BOS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHC @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAA @ SF 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ CHW 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays +2.7 pp toward model
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals -0.7 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles -1.6 pp away
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox -0.5 pp away
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates -0.6 pp away
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets -0.4 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
4 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes10 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSD @ MIA› GameHOU @ CHW› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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