Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 4 signals, mostly dogs.
July 26, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-26T16:14:05.746931Z
Observation
The model reviewed 14 MLB games on July 26, 2026 and found 12 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 4 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.
Slate Result
+1.8u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
9 / 14
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
9 of 14
5 of 14
Top Edge · Settled
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
4.5%+
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays · CLE 0, TB 1
Model: 0.4
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.8u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
CLE @ TB
-12.0%
+1.8u
COL @ MIL
-12.0%
Final COL 2-11 MIL
SEA @ TEX
-12.0%
Final SEA 6-4 TEX
NYY @ PHI
-10.7%
Final NYY 4-11 PHI
ARI @ WAS
-10.1%
Final ARI 7-10 WAS
KC @ DET
-3.2%
Final KC 5-4 DET
TOR @ BOS
-0.6%
Final TOR 1-6 BOS
CHC @ PIT
-5.0%
Final CHC 7-8 PIT
LAD @ NYM
+5.2%
Final LAD 3-8 NYM
CIN @ STL
-5.8%
Final CIN 5-3 STL
LAA @ SF
+9.1%
Final LAA 4-3 SF
ATL @ BAL
+10.5%
Final ATL 3-2 BAL
HOU @ CHW
+12.1%
Final HOU 3-12 CHW
SD @ MIA
-13.7%
Final SD 5-3 MIA
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 5 of 14 settled games.
ATL @ BAL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CLE @ TB
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
HOU @ CHW
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
LAD @ NYM
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ARI @ WAS
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CHC @ PIT
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The board paid. The process is why.
Sharp Principle
One night proves nothing. The ledger proves everything.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›