Market Reports / July 22, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 22, 2026

14 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 80

The model reviewed 14 MLB games on July 22, 2026 and found 10 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 3 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
80
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
NYM @ MIL
Density
21.0%
3 of 14
Passed
11
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
New York Mets +1.5
NYM @ MIL
Market
1.5
Model
-0.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
NYM @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TB @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ ATL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIA @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ PHI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ COL -1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CIN @ SEA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BAL @ BOS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
STL @ LAA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
SF @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHW @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIN @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals -3.8 pp away
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies +18.4 pp toward model
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners -13.7 pp away
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels No movement
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians -2.1 pp away
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies +3.4 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
6 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 3. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameNYM @ MIL› GameDET @ CHC› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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