Chalk finding value: 4 signals lean toward favorites.
July 27, 2026 · Updated 2026-07-27T16:14:39.758890Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On July 27, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 11 MLB games and found only 4 signals worth sending, with 7 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
9 / 11
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
9 of 11
2 of 11
Top Edge · Settled
Seattle Mariners -1.5
4.5%+
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers · SEA 3, TEX 7
Model: -2.8
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
SEA @ TEX
-12.0%
-1.0u
TOR @ WAS
-12.0%
Final TOR 3-2 WAS
HOU @ LAA
-12.0%
Final HOU 1-4 LAA
ATL @ NYM
-12.0%
Final ATL 3-14 NYM
CLE @ CIN
-10.0%
Final CLE 0-0 CIN
CHC @ STL
-8.6%
Final CHC 5-3 STL
MIL @ SF
-7.4%
Final MIL 0-3 SF
ARI @ PIT
-6.9%
Final ARI 2-3 PIT
NYY @ CHW
-5.4%
Final NYY 9-5 CHW
PHI @ MIA
-2.8%
Final PHI 7-8 MIA
BAL @ DET
+9.0%
Final BAL 8-5 DET
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 11 settled games.
ARI @ PIT
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ATL @ NYM
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BAL @ DET
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CHC @ STL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
CLE @ CIN
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
HOU @ LAA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
Nothing removed. Ever.
How the morning called it
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