Market Reports / July 28, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 28, 2026

14 games analyzed 6 signals MEI: 86

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 11 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
86
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
ARI @ PIT
Density
43.0%
6 of 14
Passed
8
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Chicago Cubs -1.5
CHC @ STL
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
ARI @ PIT -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
HOU @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ SD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ NYM -1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TEX @ TB 1.5 Below 2% PASS
TOR @ WAS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BAL @ DET 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates +0.2 pp toward model
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers -0.2 pp away
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins -4.0 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays +1.8 pp toward model
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals -1.6 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets -0.4 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
4 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes8 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameARI @ PIT› GamePHI @ MIA› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting›

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