Market Reports / July 29, 2026

MLB Market Report | July 29, 2026

13 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 78

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On July 29, 2026, that process resulted in 4 published signals and 9 passes.

MEI
78
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
MIL @ SF
Density
31.0%
4 of 13
Passed
9
of 13
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
MIL @ SF
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIL @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHC @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ATL @ NYM -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ SD 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
ARI @ PIT 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BAL @ DET 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SEA @ LAD 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ LAA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TEX @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins No movement
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates +1.3 pp toward model
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals No movement
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants -15.0 pp away
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres -7.2 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.6 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
4 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes9 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameMIL @ SF› GameCLE @ CIN› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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