Market Reports / July 28, 2026

WNBA Market Report | July 28, 2026

5 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 53

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On July 28, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 5 WNBA games and found only 2 signals worth sending, with 3 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
53
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
IND @ SEA
Density
40.0%
2 of 5
Passed
3
of 5
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Signal
Signal Published
Seattle Storm +9.5
IND @ SEA
Market
9.5
Model
4.4
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
IND @ SEA 9.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYL @ LAS 5.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
Portland Fire @ LVA -11.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
Toronto Tempo @ MIN -15.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CON @ WAS -6.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics +1.0 pts toward model
Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx +2.0 pts toward model
Indiana Fever @ Seattle Storm -1.0 pts away
Portland Fire @ Las Vegas Aces No movement
New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks No movement
Recent performance ยท WNBA

Recent sample below reporting threshold. Figures publish once 7 signals are graded.

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes3 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's WNBA edge rankings› GameIND @ SEA› GameNYL @ LAS› WeeklyWNBA Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone› TonightHow the slate played out: WNBA evening edition›

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