5 min read

A Beginner's Guide to SharpPicks

Everything you need to know to read your signals, understand your results, and use the app with confidence.

What Is SharpPicks?

SharpPicks is a sports betting analytics app. It uses a mathematical model to identify games where it believes the betting market — the odds set by sportsbooks — has gotten the number wrong. When the model finds a big enough difference, it generates a signal: essentially a recommendation worth considering. It currently covers the NBA (with MLB in beta and WNBA coming soon).

The 5 Main Tabs

1. Signals (Home Screen)

This is your daily dashboard. Here’s what you’ll see:

Market Intelligence Banner — A quick summary of the day’s landscape. For example, “9 games · 6 edges · 2 signals · 22% density” means: out of 9 NBA games today, the model found 6 where it disagrees with the market, but only 2 were strong enough to become official signals. The 22% density tells you how active the model is — a low number means it’s being very selective.

Outcome Resolved — This shows the result of the most recent signal. It tells you the pick, the final score, and a brief mindset note to encourage disciplined thinking.

Daily Top Signal — The main event. This is the app’s strongest pick for the day.

Signal Breakdown
Team + Numbere.g., Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5. The “-8.5” is the spread. OKC needs to win by more than 8.5 points for the bet to pay out.
+12.8% (Edge)The percentage difference between where the market has the line and where the model thinks it should be. Bigger = better.
-105 (Price/Odds)The cost of the bet. At -105, you’d risk $105 to win $100. Negative = you lay more than you win.
Tips in 6h 13mCountdown to game tipoff.
Market vs. ModelThe market line is what sportsbooks offer. The model line is what the model thinks it should be. That gap is where the value comes from.
Tier (STR)Signal strength. “STR” stands for Strong — the model’s highest conviction level.
Size (2u)Recommended bet size in units. If your unit is $50, a 2u bet means $100.
Edge bar (+12.8pp)A visual showing the edge in percentage points.
Value line“Playable down to -12” — the worst number at which the bet is still worth taking.
Flat vs. KellyTwo sizing strategies. Flat = same amount every time (conservative). Kelly = sized proportional to edge (aggressive).
Tracking buttonTap to log the bet in your personal tracker.

Season Performance — A snapshot of the model’s overall track record:

Season Stats
Win RatePercentage of signals that won.
ROIReturn on Investment — for every dollar wagered following the signals, how much you’d be up.
Avg CLVClosing Line Value — on average, how much the line moved in the model’s direction after the signal was released.
SignalsTotal number of picks made this season.
UnitsNet profit in units across all signals.

Signal History — A scrollable list of every past signal with win/loss results, units gained or lost, and CLV for each.

2. Market

A deeper look at the day’s full slate of games.

Market Tab Breakdown
MEIMarket Efficiency Index (0-100). Measures how much opportunity the model sees today. Higher = more opportunities.
RegimeThe model’s assessment of the current market environment. “Active” means moderate number of opportunities.
Top EdgeThe best single edge found today.
Signal breakdownHow many edges exist at each confidence level. Only strong/moderate ones become official signals.
Line MovementHow the betting line has moved and whether it’s moving toward or away from the model’s prediction.
Model vs. Market DeltaA ranked list showing the gap between the model’s line and the market line for every game.

3. Results

Your personal scoreboard.

Results Tab Breakdown
Your ResultsActual profit/loss if you’ve been tracking bets.
ROIYour personal return on investment across tracked bets.
Equity CurveLine chart showing your profit over time — ideally trending upward.
Discipline ScoreGrades how selectively you follow signals. Lower selectivity = more choosy = better grade.
Capital PreservedEstimated money saved by passing on picks that turned out to be losers.

4. Insights (Sharp Journal)

Educational content and daily commentary from the founder. Articles are tagged by category: Philosophy (the thinking behind the approach), Discipline (mindset and bankroll management), Market Notes (daily analysis), and How It Works (technical explanations). There’s also a “Sharp Manifesto” — a good starting point that explains the overall philosophy.

5. Account

Your personal settings and subscription management.

Key Concepts Glossary

Spread
The number of points a team is expected to win or lose by. Betting the spread means you’re not just picking a winner — you’re picking whether a team will win by more (or lose by less) than the number.
Edge
The difference between what the model predicts and what the market offers. A bigger edge means more potential value.
Unit (u)
A standardized bet size relative to your bankroll. Most people set 1 unit at 1–2% of their total bankroll.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
How much the line moved in your favor between when you placed the bet and when it closed. Consistently beating the closing line is the gold standard of sharp betting — it means you’re getting better numbers than the final market price.
ROI (Return on Investment)
Your profit as a percentage of total money wagered.
Kelly Criterion
A mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing based on edge size and probability. It’s more aggressive than flat betting.
Signal Density
The percentage of games that produce a signal. Low density means the model is being highly selective.

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