NBA Market Report | April 17, 2026
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 41, signaling a normal environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
MEI
41
NORMAL
Top Edge
4.5%+
CHA @ ORL
Density
50.0%
1 of 2
Passed
1
of 2
Signal
Signal Published
Charlotte Hornets -3.5
Market
-3.5
Model
-5.7
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL
A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.
Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
CHA @ ORL
-3.5
4.5%+
SIGNAL
GSW @ PHX
-3.5
2 to 3.4%
PASS
Line Movement
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
+2.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
1 of 7
The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 1 games like these that you do not play.
Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
This Week's Reports
Related
Passes1 games the model passed on›
EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings›
GameCHA @ ORL›
GameGSW @ PHX›
WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary›
LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›
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