NBA Market Report | April 25, 2026
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 36, signaling a normal environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
MEI
36
NORMAL
Top Edge
4.5%+
NYK @ ATL
Density
33.0%
1 of 3
Passed
2
of 3
Signal
Signal Published
New York Knicks -2.5
Market
-2.5
Model
-4.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL
Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.
Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
NYK @ ATL
-2.5
4.5%+
SIGNAL
OKC @ PHX
-8.5
4.5%+
FILTERED
DEN @ MIN
-1.5
Below 2%
PASS
Line Movement
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic
No movement
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
+3.0 pts toward model
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
-13.0 pts away
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
1 of 7
Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.
Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
This Week's Reports
Related
Passes2 games the model passed on›
EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings›
GameNYK @ ATL›
GameOKC @ PHX›
WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary›
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