Dogs leading the edge board: 8 underdog vs 1 favorite.
April 30, 2026 · Updated 2026-04-30T15:01:00.714262Z
Observation
Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On April 30, 2026, that process resulted in 4 published signals and 5 passes.
Slate Result
+0.8u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
7 / 9
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
7 of 9
2 of 9
Top Edge · Settled
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
4.5%+
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates · STL 10, PIT 5
Model: -0.2
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +0.8u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
DET @ ATL
+6.0%
Final DET 5-2 ATL
STL @ PIT
-6.0%
+0.8u
COL @ CIN
-6.0%
Final COL 4-6 CIN
WAS @ NYM
-6.0%
Final WAS 5-4 NYM
ARI @ MIL
-6.0%
Final ARI 1-13 MIL
TOR @ MIN
-6.0%
Final TOR 1-7 MIN
SF @ PHI
-3.0%
Final SF 5-6 PHI
KC @ OAK
-6.6%
Final KC 3-6 OAK
HOU @ BAL
-6.6%
Final HOU 11-5 BAL
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 9 settled games.
STL @ PIT
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +3.5
ARI @ MIL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -2.5
COL @ CIN
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
DET @ ATL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
HOU @ BAL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
KC @ OAK
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entries held and the close agreed. Both matter.
Sharp Principle
One night proves nothing. The ledger proves everything.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›