Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 3 signals, mostly dogs.
June 28, 2026 · Updated 2026-06-28T16:14:04.788194Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 77, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
12 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
12 of 15
3 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
4.5%+
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays · ARI 1, TB 5
Model: -0.9
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
ARI @ TB
-12.0%
-1.0u
NYY @ BOS
-12.0%
Final NYY 4-5 BOS
SEA @ CLE
-12.0%
Final SEA 5-6 CLE
OAK @ LAA
-10.6%
Final OAK 1-4 LAA
WAS @ BAL
-9.8%
Final WAS 6-4 BAL
LAD @ SD
-8.4%
Final LAD 4-2 SD
CHC @ MIL
-4.4%
Final CHC 4-3 MIL
COL @ MIN
-0.2%
Final COL 2-3 MIN
PHI @ NYM
+0.8%
Final PHI 5-4 NYM
CIN @ PIT
-2.6%
Final CIN 4-9 PIT
ATL @ SF
+3.2%
Final ATL 2-3 SF
KC @ CHW
-4.3%
Final KC 5-4 CHW
TEX @ TOR
-5.1%
Final TEX 3-2 TOR
HOU @ DET
+8.2%
Final HOU 7-5 DET
MIA @ STL
-10.7%
Final MIA 1-2 STL
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 3 of 15 settled games.
ATL @ SF
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
HOU @ DET
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ARI @ TB
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHC @ MIL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CIN @ PIT
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ MIN
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Wrong side tonight. The record shows it because the record shows everything.
Sharp Principle
One night proves nothing. The ledger proves everything.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›