Market Reports / June 28, 2026

MLB Market Report | June 28, 2026

15 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 77

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On June 28, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 3 signals worth sending, with 12 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
77
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
ARI @ TB
Density
20.0%
3 of 15
Passed
12
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
ARI @ TB
Market
1.5
Model
-0.9
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
ARI @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
OAK @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ MIL 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
COL @ MIN 1.5 Below 2% PASS
PHI @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CIN @ PIT 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
ATL @ SF 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
KC @ CHW 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
TEX @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ DET 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles +0.3 pp toward model
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates -0.6 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays +0.8 pp toward model
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays -0.9 pp away
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers No movement
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox -0.4 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
4 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameARI @ TB› GameNYY @ BOS› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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