Market Reports / June 22, 2026

MLB Market Report | June 22, 2026

13 games analyzed 5 signals MEI: 86

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 86, signaling a rare inefficiency environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
86
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
ARI @ STL
Density
38.0%
5 of 13
Passed
8
of 13
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Houston Astros +1.5
HOU @ TOR
Market
1.5
Model
0.6
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TEX @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHC @ NYM -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ WAS 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ATL @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ TB 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
BAL @ LAA -1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAD @ MIN 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
ARI @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers No movement
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.3 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins -1.2 pp away
Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays -0.8 pp away
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets +2.4 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds -1.1 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
6-1
CLV beat
4 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 8 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes8 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameARI @ STL› GameTEX @ MIA› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting›

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