Market Reports / April 1, 2026

NBA Market Report | April 1, 2026

8 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 49

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 3 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
49
NORMAL
Top Edge
4.5%+
BOS @ MIA
Density
12.0%
1 of 8
Passed
7
of 8
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Signal
Signal Published
Atlanta Hawks -2.5
ATL @ ORL
Market
-2.5
Model
-5.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
BOS @ MIA -5.0 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ ORL -2.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SAS @ GSW -14.0 Below 2% PASS
SAC @ TOR 12.0 Below 2% PASS
NYK @ MEM -14.5 Below 2% PASS
PHI @ WAS 14.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
DEN @ UTA 17.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
IND @ CHI 4.0 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
Line Movement
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards -6.5 pts away
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat +12.0 pts toward model
Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets No movement
New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 pts toward model
Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz +0.5 pts toward model
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors +11.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
0 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes7 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameBOS @ MIA› GameATL @ ORL› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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