Market Reports / April 4, 2026

NBA Market Report | April 4, 2026

3 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 46

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 46, signaling a normal environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
46
NORMAL
Top Edge
4.5%+
SAS @ DEN
Density
33.0%
1 of 3
Passed
2
of 3
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Signal
Signal Published
San Antonio Spurs -1.5
SAS @ DEN
Market
-1.5
Model
-9.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SAS @ DEN -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ PHI -2.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
WAS @ MIA 18.0 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
Line Movement
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets -5.5 pts away
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat +2.0 pts toward model
Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
0 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 2 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes2 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameSAS @ DEN› GameWAS @ MIA› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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