Market Reports / April 5, 2026

NBA Market Report | April 5, 2026

11 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 55

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 4 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
55
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
TOR @ BOS
Density
9.0%
1 of 11
Passed
10
of 11
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Signal
Signal Published
Houston Rockets -3.5
HOU @ GSW
Market
-3.5
Model
-5.8
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TOR @ BOS 9.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ GSW -3.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ORL @ NOP -6.0 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAL @ DAL -1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CHA @ MIN -3.5 Below 2% PASS
MEM @ MIL 7.0 Below 2% PASS
IND @ CLE 15.5 Below 2% PASS
UTA @ OKC 24.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAC @ SAC 13.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
WAS @ BKN -3.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PHX @ CHI 11.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
Line Movement
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics -6.0 pts away
Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets +3.0 pts toward model
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls -0.5 pts away
Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 pts away
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers +4.0 pts toward model
Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans No movement
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
0 of 7

This slate had 11 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 1. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes10 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameTOR @ BOS› GameHOU @ GSW› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

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