Market Reports / March 31, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 31, 2026

7 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 57

The model reviewed 7 NBA games on March 31, 2026 and found 3 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 1 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
57
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
PHX @ ORL
Density
14.0%
1 of 7
Passed
6
of 7
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Signal
Signal Published
Houston Rockets +1.0
NYK @ HOU
Market
1.0
Model
-0.8
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
PHX @ ORL 2.0 4.5%+ FILTERED
POR @ LAC 5.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYK @ HOU 1.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHA @ BKN -17.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
CLE @ LAL -2.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
DAL @ MIL 1.0 Below 2% PASS
TOR @ DET 2.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic -0.5 pts away
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons -9.0 pts away
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 pts toward model
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers +3.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
2-4-1
CLV beat
0 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 1. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GamePHX @ ORL› GamePOR @ LAC› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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