Market Reports / April 16, 2026 / Evening Edition

MLB Slate Recap | April 16, 2026

10 games analyzed 9 signals Net: +1.7u
Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

More than half the edges cleared the filter.

April 16, 2026 · Updated 2026-04-16T15:01:48.930814Z
Evan Cole · Head of Signal Intelligence
Observation

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 9 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

Slate Result
+1.7u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
9 / 10
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
9 of 10 1 of 10
Top Edge · Settled
San Francisco Giants +1.5 4.5%+
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds · SF 3, CIN 0
Model: 0.0 · Close: -1.5 · CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.7u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
SF @ CIN -6.0%
+1.7u
KC @ DET -6.0%
Final KC 9-10 DET
TOR @ MIL -6.0%
Final TOR 1-2 MIL
LAA @ NYY -6.0%
Final LAA 11-4 NYY
TB @ CHW -6.0%
Final TB 5-3 CHW
TEX @ OAK -6.0%
Final TEX 9-6 OAK
BAL @ CLE -6.0%
Final BAL 2-4 CLE
COL @ HOU -6.0%
Final COL 3-2 HOU
SEA @ SD -6.0%
Final SEA 2-5 SD
WAS @ PIT -1.0%
Final WAS 8-7 PIT
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on 1 of 10 settled games.

SF @ CIN
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
BAL @ CLE
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
COL @ HOU
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
KC @ DET
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
LAA @ NYY
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
SEA @ SD
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
Implication
A green night. The grade that counts is still the closing line.
Sharp Principle

Variance is rent. CLV is equity.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
›
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
3 of 7

This slate had 10 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 9. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
This Week's Reports
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Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19
Related
Passes1 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSF @ CIN› GameKC @ DET› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› MorningHow the morning called it: MLB market report›

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