Market Reports / April 14, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 14, 2026

15 games analyzed 10 signals MEI: 74

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 74, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
74
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SF @ CIN
Density
67.0%
10 of 15
Passed
5
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
San Francisco Giants -1.5
SF @ CIN
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SF @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ OAK -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ ATL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHC @ PHI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
ARI @ BAL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
Line Movement
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles -2.2 pp away
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies +1.4 pp toward model
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds -0.2 pp away
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers -0.2 pp away
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates No movement
Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees -1.6 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
2 of 7

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 10. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSF @ CIN› GameKC @ DET› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator›

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