Market Reports / April 19, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 19, 2026

15 games analyzed 9 signals MEI: 73

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 73, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
73
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
TB @ PIT
Density
60.0%
9 of 15
Passed
6
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
TB @ PIT
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TB @ PIT -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SF @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CIN @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYM @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SD @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ATL @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ COL -1.5 Below 2% PASS
KC @ NYY 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHW @ OAK 1.5 Below 2% PASS
TEX @ SEA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
DET @ BOS 1.5 Below 2% PASS
STL @ HOU 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
Line Movement
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees -2.4 pp away
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals -0.4 pp away
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians -5.5 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins -2.9 pp away
St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros -4.9 pp away
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs -3.9 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
5 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameTB @ PIT› GameSF @ WAS› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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