Market Reports / April 20, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 20, 2026

10 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 60

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 5 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
60
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
BAL @ KC
Density
10.0%
1 of 10
Passed
9
of 10
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
PHI @ CHC
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
BAL @ KC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
HOU @ CLE -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ CHC -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
OAK @ SEA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
DET @ BOS 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
STL @ MIA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAD @ COL -1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
ATL @ WAS 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
Line Movement
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals +1.4 pp toward model
Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians -3.0 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays No movement
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins -0.6 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals -1.2 pp away
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs -1.9 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
6 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes9 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameBAL @ KC› GameHOU @ CLE› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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