Market Reports / April 25, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 25, 2026

15 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 62

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On April 25, 2026, that process resulted in 3 published signals and 12 passes.

MEI
62
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
SD @ ARI
Density
20.0%
3 of 15
Passed
12
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Seattle Mariners -1.5
SEA @ STL
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.2
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SD @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ BAL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ STL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIA @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
COL @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DET @ CIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ TOR 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAA @ KC 1.5 Below 2% PASS
PIT @ MIL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIN @ TB 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
OAK @ TEX 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CHC @ LAD 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
WAS @ CHW 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
Line Movement
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks -2.2 pp away
Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals -12.5 pp away
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants +10.4 pp toward model
Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox -2.1 pp away
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets -1.0 pp away
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays -0.8 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
5 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSD @ ARI› GameBOS @ BAL› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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