Market Reports / April 21, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 21, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 63

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 12 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
63
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
CIN @ TB
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Minnesota Twins +1.5
MIN @ NYM
Market
1.5
Model
-0.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
CIN @ TB -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ MIA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ATL @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIN @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ CHC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ LAA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
OAK @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAD @ SF -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ COL -1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CHW @ ARI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ CLE 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BAL @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays +1.4 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers +1.3 pp toward model
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins -0.7 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals +3.2 pp toward model
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox -2.6 pp away
Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets +3.0 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
6 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 2. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCIN @ TB› GameMIL @ DET› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

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