Market Reports / April 22, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 22, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 59

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On April 22, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 2 signals worth sending, with 13 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
59
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
NYY @ BOS
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
New York Yankees -1.5
NYY @ BOS
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
NYY @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ TEX -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ATL @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
OAK @ SEA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
PHI @ CHC 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
SD @ COL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAD @ SF -1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIN @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
HOU @ CLE 1.5 Below 2% PASS
TOR @ LAA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CIN @ TB 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CHW @ ARI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ DET 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
STL @ MIA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
BAL @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians +18.8 pp toward model
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners +12.5 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers -0.4 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals +2.4 pp toward model
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox -2.7 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies +1.1 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
6 of 7

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 2. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameNYY @ BOS› GamePIT @ TEX› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator›

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