No directional lean: 6 chalk, 6 dogs.
April 25, 2026 · Updated 2026-04-25T15:01:18.450273Z
Observation
The model reviewed 15 MLB games on April 25, 2026 and found 8 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 3 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.
Slate Result
+1.2u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
14 / 14
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
14 of 14
0 of 14
Top Edge · Settled
Seattle Mariners -1.5
4.5%+
Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals · SEA 11, STL 9
Model: -2.2
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.2u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
SD @ ARI
-6.0%
Final SD 6-4 ARI
BOS @ BAL
-6.0%
Final BOS 17-1 BAL
SEA @ STL
-6.0%
+1.2u
MIA @ SF
-6.0%
Final MIA 2-6 SF
COL @ NYM
-6.0%
Pending
PHI @ ATL
-6.0%
Final PHI 8-5 ATL
DET @ CIN
-6.0%
Final DET 2-9 CIN
NYY @ HOU
-5.5%
Final NYY 8-3 HOU
CLE @ TOR
-0.9%
Final CLE 3-5 TOR
LAA @ KC
-1.1%
Final LAA 1-12 KC
PIT @ MIL
-1.9%
Final PIT 6-3 MIL
MIN @ TB
-2.4%
Final MIN 1-6 TB
OAK @ TEX
-2.4%
Final OAK 3-4 TEX
CHC @ LAD
-2.6%
Final CHC 4-12 LAD
WAS @ CHW
-3.5%
Final WAS 6-3 CHW
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 0 of 14 settled games.
SEA @ STL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BOS @ BAL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +5.5
CHC @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CLE @ TOR
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ NYM
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
DET @ CIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
Near Misses
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entries held and the close agreed. Both matter.
Sharp Principle
Process first. Results follow or they do not.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›