Market Reports / April 16, 2026

MLB Market Report | April 16, 2026

10 games analyzed 9 signals MEI: 80

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 80, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
80
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SF @ CIN
Density
90.0%
9 of 10
Passed
1
of 10
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
San Francisco Giants +1.5
SF @ CIN
Market
1.5
Model
0.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SF @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAA @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ OAK -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SEA @ SD -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ PIT 1.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 pp away
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers +0.5 pp toward model
Toronto Blue Jays @ Milwaukee Brewers +14.0 pp toward model
Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees +8.4 pp toward model
Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox -2.0 pp away
Texas Rangers @ Athletics -0.5 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
3 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes1 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSF @ CIN› GameKC @ DET› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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