Even split tonight. Edges on both sides of the board.
April 18, 2026 · Updated 2026-04-18T15:01:52.373437Z
Observation
Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On April 18, 2026, that process resulted in 6 published signals and 9 passes.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
14 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
14 of 15
1 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
New York Mets -1.5
4.5%+
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs · NYM 2, CHC 4
Model: -2.2
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
NYM @ CHC
-6.0%
-1.0u
SF @ WAS
-6.0%
Final SF 7-6 WAS
DET @ BOS
-6.0%
Final DET 4-1 BOS
MIL @ MIA
-6.0%
Final MIL 5-2 MIA
TOR @ ARI
-6.0%
Final TOR 2-6 ARI
SD @ LAA
-6.0%
Final SD 2-0 LAA
TB @ PIT
-1.7%
Final TB 8-7 PIT
CHW @ OAK
-1.3%
Final CHW 6-7 OAK
KC @ NYY
-1.0%
Final KC 4-13 NYY
CIN @ MIN
-0.9%
Final CIN 5-4 MIN
LAD @ COL
-1.4%
Final LAD 3-4 COL
STL @ HOU
-1.8%
Final STL 7-5 HOU
TEX @ SEA
-2.1%
Final TEX 3-7 SEA
BAL @ CLE
-2.6%
Final BAL 2-4 CLE
ATL @ PHI
-3.7%
Final ATL 3-1 PHI
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 1 of 15 settled games.
ATL @ PHI
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BAL @ CLE
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHW @ OAK
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +2.5
CIN @ MIN
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +1.5
DET @ BOS
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
KC @ NYY
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -2.5
Near Misses
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
3.5 to 4.4%
Edge below threshold.
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entry did not hold and the close did not help. Logged either way.
Sharp Principle
Variance is rent. CLV is equity.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›