Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

Balanced board with 3 signals and no clear bias.

Observation

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On May 14, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 9 MLB games and found only 3 signals worth sending, with 6 games falling short of the threshold.

Slate Result
+1.6u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
8 / 11
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
8 of 11 3 of 11
Top Edge · Settled
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 4.5%+
St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics · STL 5, OAK 4
Model: 0.8 · Close: -1.5 · CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.6u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
SEA @ HOU -12.0%
Final SEA 8-3 HOU
STL @ OAK -12.0%
+1.6u
PHI @ BOS -12.0%
Final PHI 3-1 BOS
CHC @ ATL -9.6%
Final CHC 2-0 ATL
KC @ CHW -8.9%
Final KC 2-6 CHW
MIA @ MIN -6.2%
Final MIA 1-9 MIN
SF @ LAD -3.9%
Final SF 2-2 LAD
DET @ NYM -0.4%
Final DET 4-9 NYM
SD @ MIL -5.1%
Final SD 1-7 MIL
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on 3 of 11 settled games.

STL @ OAK
Open: +1.5 · Close: -1.5
Model edge
CHC @ ATL
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
DET @ NYM
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
KC @ CHW
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
MIA @ MIN
Open: -1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
PHI @ BOS
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
Near Misses
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A green night. The grade that counts is still the closing line.
Sharp Principle

A loss that beat the close was a good trade.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
1 of 7

This slate had 9 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 3. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
This Week's Reports
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May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May 17
Related
Passes6 games the model passed on EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings GameSEA @ HOU GameSTL @ OAK WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary LearnCLV Calculator MorningHow the morning called it: MLB market report

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