Market Reports / May 15, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 15, 2026

15 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 83

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 83, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
83
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
KC @ STL
Density
27.0%
4 of 15
Passed
11
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
MIA @ TB
Market
1.5
Model
0.8
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TOR @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ARI @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ LAA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
NYY @ NYM -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ PIT 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BOS @ ATL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
CHC @ CHW 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
SD @ SEA 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIL @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates -0.7 pp away
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals No movement
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers -0.5 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians -0.4 pp away
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays +1.1 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins +0.9 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameKC @ STL› GameTOR @ DET› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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