Market Reports / May 14, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 14, 2026

9 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 81

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 14, 2026, that process resulted in 3 published signals and 6 passes.

MEI
81
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SEA @ HOU
Density
33.0%
3 of 9
Passed
6
of 9
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
STL @ OAK
Market
1.5
Model
0.8
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
SEA @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
STL @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PHI @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHC @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ LAD 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
DET @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SD @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds No movement
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets +3.2 pp toward model
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins +3.8 pp toward model
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers +0.4 pp toward model
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros -0.5 pp away
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics -0.4 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
1 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
This Week's Reports
← Previous report Next report →
May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May 17
Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSEA @ HOU› GameSTL @ OAK› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

Only the signal layer is hidden.

Full model output. Live alerts. Bet tracking. One pick beats five.

Claim Founding Spot