Market Reports / May 12, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 12, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 74

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 11 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
74
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
MIA @ MIN
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Colorado Rockies +1.5
COL @ PIT
Market
1.5
Model
0.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
COL @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TB @ TOR -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ ATL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SEA @ HOU 1.5 Below 2% PASS
NYY @ BAL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
STL @ OAK 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
LAA @ CLE 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
SD @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
WAS @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ARI @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians +0.2 pp toward model
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds -1.0 pp away
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates +1.8 pp toward model
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox -0.8 pp away
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 pp toward model
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets +1.0 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
1 of 7

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 2. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameMIA @ MIN› GameCOL @ PIT› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator›

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