Market Reports / May 16, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 16, 2026

15 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 75

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 10 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
75
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
KC @ STL
Density
13.0%
2 of 15
Passed
13
of 15
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Signal
Signal Published
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
BAL @ WAS
Market
-1.5
Model
-2.1
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
BAL @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TOR @ DET -1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
TEX @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ARI @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ SEA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAD @ LAA 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ TB 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PHI @ PIT 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
BOS @ ATL 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
MIL @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ NYM 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ CHW 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
KC @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies -16.9 pp away
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays -6.4 pp away
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians +1.0 pp toward model
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox +1.2 pp toward model
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros -0.6 pp away
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins -1.9 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
3-4
CLV beat
3 of 7

This slate had 15 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 2. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameKC @ STL› GameBAL @ WAS› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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