Market Reports / May 11, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 11, 2026

6 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 50

The model reviewed 6 MLB games on May 11, 2026 and found 3 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 1 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
50
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
ARI @ TEX
Density
17.0%
1 of 6
Passed
5
of 6
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Signal
Signal Published
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
TB @ TOR
Market
1.5
Model
0.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TB @ TOR 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SF @ LAD 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
NYY @ BAL 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAA @ CLE 1.5 Below 2% PASS
SEA @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ARI @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians +0.4 pp toward model
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles +2.6 pp toward model
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays +1.0 pp toward model
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers +3.1 pp toward model
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros +0.8 pp toward model
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers -0.9 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
2-5
CLV beat
1 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 1. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameARI @ TEX› GameSEA @ HOU› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator›

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