Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 2 signals, mostly dogs.
May 16, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-16T16:15:30.793930Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 75, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
10 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
10 of 15
5 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
4.5%+
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals · BAL 3, WAS 13
Model: -2.1
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
BAL @ WAS
-12.0%
-1.0u
TOR @ DET
-12.0%
Final TOR 2-1 DET
TEX @ HOU
-7.3%
Final TEX 1-4 HOU
ARI @ COL
-5.9%
Final ARI 2-4 COL
SD @ SEA
-0.1%
Final SD 7-4 SEA
LAD @ LAA
+1.2%
Final LAD 6-2 LAA
MIA @ TB
-2.6%
Final MIA 10-5 TB
PHI @ PIT
+3.2%
Final PHI 6-0 PIT
BOS @ ATL
-4.2%
Final BOS 3-2 ATL
MIL @ MIN
+5.6%
Final MIL 2-1 MIN
SF @ OAK
-7.1%
Final SF 6-4 OAK
NYY @ NYM
+8.4%
Final NYY 3-6 NYM
CIN @ CLE
-10.3%
Final CIN 4-7 CLE
CHC @ CHW
+10.8%
Final CHC 3-8 CHW
KC @ STL
+13.1%
Final KC 2-4 STL
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 5 of 15 settled games.
ARI @ COL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHC @ CHW
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
NYY @ NYM
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BAL @ WAS
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -3.5
BOS @ ATL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CIN @ CLE
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entry did not hold and the close did not help. Logged either way.
Sharp Principle
Receipts over narratives.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›