Single conviction: Boston Red Sox at +14 percent while the rest stays flat.
May 30, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-30T16:14:44.347676Z
Observation
Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On May 30, 2026, that process resulted in 1 published signal and 14 passes.
Slate Result
+1.6u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
11 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
11 of 15
4 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Kansas City Royals +1.5
4.5%+
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers · KC 6, TEX 7
Model: -0.6
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.6u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
KC @ TEX
-12.0%
+1.6u
MIL @ HOU
-12.0%
Final MIL 2-9 HOU
SD @ WAS
-11.2%
Final SD 4-9 WAS
DET @ CHW
-10.9%
Final DET 1-7 CHW
SF @ COL
-9.3%
Final SF 3-8 COL
NYY @ OAK
-5.0%
Final NYY 1-3 OAK
LAA @ TB
-0.9%
Final LAA 14-3 TB
MIA @ NYM
-1.6%
Final MIA 1-6 NYM
ATL @ CIN
+1.8%
Final ATL 5-2 CIN
ARI @ SEA
-5.0%
Final ARI 0-5 SEA
MIN @ PIT
-5.4%
Final MIN 9-10 PIT
PHI @ LAD
-6.3%
Final PHI 1-2 LAD
CHC @ STL
+8.9%
Final CHC 6-1 STL
TOR @ BAL
+9.0%
Final TOR 5-6 BAL
BOS @ CLE
-14.3%
Final BOS 9-1 CLE
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 4 of 15 settled games.
CHC @ STL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
KC @ TEX
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
MIL @ HOU
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
ARI @ SEA
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
ATL @ CIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BOS @ CLE
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entries held and the close agreed. Both matter.
Sharp Principle
The math does not celebrate.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›