Market Reports / May 30, 2026

MLB Market Report | May 30, 2026

15 games analyzed 1 signal MEI: 78

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On May 30, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 15 MLB games and found only 1 signal worth sending, with 14 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
78
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
BOS @ CLE
Density
7.0%
1 of 15
Passed
14
of 15
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Kansas City Royals +1.5
KC @ TEX
Market
1.5
Model
-0.6
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
KC @ TEX 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ HOU -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ WAS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ CHW -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYY @ OAK -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAA @ TB 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ NYM 1.5 Below 2% PASS
ATL @ CIN 1.5 Below 2% PASS
ARI @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIN @ PIT 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CHC @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ BAL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BOS @ CLE 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox -1.0 pp away
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers -9.4 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals +11.3 pp toward model
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians -1.1 pp away
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets -0.7 pp away
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds +2.9 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
6 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 14 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes14 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameBOS @ CLE› GameKC @ TEX› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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